LIVING SYSTEMATIC REVIEWS (LSR) AND PROSPECTIVE META ANALYSIS (PMA): A CALL-OFDUTY FOR BAYESIAN ANALYSIS

Background The recent Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated the use of LSRs and PMAs, viewed as the 'next generation systematic reviews and meta-analyses'. LSRs and PMAs are prospective designs that can reduce the problems of traditional retrospective meta-analyses (MA) such as selective outcome reporting and publication bias, missing data, etc., and thus offer a better option for incorporating and generating new evidence. Objectives We propose the Bayesian approach as a method for analysing LSRs and PMAs. Bayesian Meta Analysis (BMA) is particularly appealing - actually, natural - for these designs as it clearly reflects the process of learning, defined as new evidence coming to update the previous knowledge, that is intrinsic to LSRs and PMAs. Methods Results pooled in the previous update of the LSR, or derived from the studies already known in the PMA, can be used to provide an objective/historical prior distribution. The combination of this information with the accumulated results (conditioning on these) provides the posterior probability distribution that can be used as the prior in the next iteration of the LSR/PMA (yesterday's posterior becomes tomorrow's prior). Results We will show an example of BMA on a LSR of the association between Covid-19 and asthmatic patients and give practical suggestions for its use. Discussion Without relying on asymptomatic normality assumptions, BMA is suitable as it is a coherent and flexible framework that, in comparison with frequentist MAs, allows a better assessment of the between-study variance and overcomes some common issues as dealing with missing data and publication bias.

Firm strategies under Covid-19 induced uncertainty: implications for policy

The Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in widespread disruptions to all sectors in the economy. Early estimates from the OBR suggest that, in the UK, social distancing measures may result in up to 35 percent drop in economic activity. Most of the current policy interventions try to stabilize the economy;however, offsetting the negative impact of the shock on the local economy short term is only half the job. However, the characteristics of COVID-19 (i.e. the fact that the current outbreak is not a one off but several outbreaks are expected for the next eighteen months) implies that building up the foundations for economic growth is intertwined with building up resilience in the economy. In other words, resilience has to become the long-term objective of the economic policy. The economic shock generated by the current outbreak is global where global does refer not only to the fact that every country will experience a contraction in aggregate demand (albeit at different points in time) but mostly (and more pertinently) to the fact that its spreads globally thanks to the interconnected supply chains that characterise modern value creation. As a result, the impact of the shock may be twice larger than expected because of the direct impact of the contraction on the national economy and of the indirect impact of the contraction through the international supply chains. The expectation is that businesses will need to face the reality of a world which will become less globalised and have to learn to strike a fine balance between local and global after the crisis is over. This means that companies will have to revisit their supply chains and markets to protect themselves in the case of a second outbreak. Our chapter plans to address the following questions: How might supply chains be reorganised in a post-Covid-19 world and what is the impact of these changes on the local economy? Using a simulation analysis (Agent Based Models), we can develop conjectures about how the UK’s companies might reorganise their supply chains, as a reaction to the risks associated with long supply chains that have been highlighted by the Covid-19 crisis, and potential slowdown in cross-border movements of goods and services in the post-Covid-19 world. Methodologically, we plan to use a mix of simulation and econometric analysis to address our research questions. Simulation analysis (ABM models) will allow to model local economies and the supply chain linkages. The models will let quantify the impact of adjustments of the supply chains on the local economy and its outcomes such as employment and productivity growth. © Philip McCann and Tim Vorley 2021.

In Silico Identification of Potential Inhibitors of the Main Protease of SARS-CoV-2 Using Combined Ligand-Based and Structure-Based Drug Design Approachc

Objectives: The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS- CoV-2) remains a serious global threat. At the time of writing, there are no specific therapeutic agents or vaccines to combat this disease. This study was designed to identify the SARS-CoV-2 main protease inhibitors using drug molecule information retrieved from DrugBank 5.0 (Wishart et al.) Methods: A set of common pharmacophores were generated from a series of 22 known SARS-CoV inhibitors. The best pharmacophore used for virtual screening (VS) of DrugBank using the Phase module followed by structure-based virtual screening (VS) using Glide (Release 2020-1;Schrodinger LLC, New York, NY, USA) with SARS-CoV-2 main protease and 50 ns molecular dynamics (MD) simulation studies. Results: Six hits were selected based on the fitness score, extra-precision Glide score, and binding affinity with the main protease (Mpro). The predicted inhibitor constant (Ki) values of the 3 best hits, DB03777, DB06834, and DB07456, were 0.8176, 0.2148, and 0.1006 mu M, respectively. An MD simulation of DB07456 and DB13592 with the Mpro demonstrated stable protein-ligand complexes. Conclusion: The selected inhibitors displayed a similar type of binding interaction with co-ligands and remdesivir, and the predicted Ki values of 2 inhibitors were found to be superior to remdesivir. These selected hits may be used for further in vitro and in vivo studies against the SARS- CoV-2 Mpro.

Covid-19 Pandemic: Need to Exercise Caution While Using Hypochlorite Sanitizer in Manufacturing Industries

World is fighting Covid-19 pandemic since beginning of the year 2020. To prevent spread of Covid-19 disease, sanitization of workplaces using sodium hypochlorite (NaOCl) disinfectant is one of the several precautionary steps that are followed currently. In this letter, I share an experience wherein regular spraying of NaOCl solution in metal forming section of an organization led to development of corrosion damage and rejection of a large number of aircraft structural components made of Al-2024 alloy sheet material. © 2020, ASM International.